TSMC’s Q1 Profits Forecasted for Significant Rise Amidst U.S. Policy Concerns
14 April 2025 · Uncategorized ·
Source: · https://finance.technews.tw/2025/04/14/tsmcs-q1-profit-is-expected-to-increase-significantly/
According to Reuters on March 17th, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) is projected to announce a first-quarter profit increase of 54%, although it may also issue warnings regarding risks associated with U.S. President Trump's trade policies.
SmartEstimates, the research arm of the London Stock Exchange Group, compiled data from 17 analysts and predicts that TSMC will report a net income of NT$347.8 billion for this year’s first quarter. This forecast gives greater weight to long-term accurate forecasters. For comparison, TSMC reported its Q2 FY2023 profit at NT$225.5 billion.
Trump has both praised Taiwan's chip industry and threatened tariffs on it. Last week he stated that if TSMC does not build a factory in the U.S., they will face a 100% tariff, while on March 14th, he announced temporary exemptions for smartphones and computers from China’s tariffs but promised an investigation into semiconductor trade under national security concerns.
“Even if gross margins dilute by two or three percentage points over the next five years due to overseas investments in chip manufacturing plants, TSMC may still increase its investment to mitigate geopolitical risks,” commented Sravan Kundojjala of research firm SemiAnalysis. “This could ensure that TSMC receives favorable treatment from the U.S. government and minimizes tariff pressures.”
Venson Tsai of Cathay Securities & Futures Co., Ltd (國泰證期) added another potential risk: Apple's iPhone is primarily manufactured in China, noting, "If iPhones don’t sell well, then neither will TSMC’s chips."
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SmartEstimates, the research arm of the London Stock Exchange Group, compiled data from 17 analysts and predicts that TSMC will report a net income of NT$347.8 billion for this year’s first quarter. This forecast gives greater weight to long-term accurate forecasters. For comparison, TSMC reported its Q2 FY2023 profit at NT$225.5 billion.
Trump has both praised Taiwan's chip industry and threatened tariffs on it. Last week he stated that if TSMC does not build a factory in the U.S., they will face a 100% tariff, while on March 14th, he announced temporary exemptions for smartphones and computers from China’s tariffs but promised an investigation into semiconductor trade under national security concerns.
“Even if gross margins dilute by two or three percentage points over the next five years due to overseas investments in chip manufacturing plants, TSMC may still increase its investment to mitigate geopolitical risks,” commented Sravan Kundojjala of research firm SemiAnalysis. “This could ensure that TSMC receives favorable treatment from the U.S. government and minimizes tariff pressures.”
Venson Tsai of Cathay Securities & Futures Co., Ltd (國泰證期) added another potential risk: Apple's iPhone is primarily manufactured in China, noting, "If iPhones don’t sell well, then neither will TSMC’s chips."
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