Supply Chain Disruptions & Shifting Demand Impacting Panel, Laptop, and Mobile Phone Markets
24 March 2025 · Uncategorized ·
Source: · https://technews.tw/2025/03/14/notebook-shipment-tv-panel/
Taiwan's panel industry is navigating significant trends and challenges, including technological upgrades, shifting market demands, US tariff policies, and geopolitical changes that impact the laptop supply chain. TrendForce addressed these industrial developments at a seminar titled "New Vision of Display Technology Upgrades" on October 14th.
The OLED (Organic Light-Emitting Diode) and LCD (Liquid Crystal Display) TV panel supply chains are undergoing subtle transformations; while OLED is gaining competitiveness due to its superior contrast ratio and thinner design, LCD continues to dominate the mid-to-low end markets. According to TrendForce's Deputy Manager Chen Qiaohui, growth in OLED TVs primarily stems from Samsung Electronics’ expanding product lineup and a recovery in Europe’s economy boosting demand for OLED panels.
However, this year's estimated shipment volume is 7.2 million units—a relatively small increase compared to last year due to supply-side adjustments; although LGD will exit the LCD market entirely, it does not plan on stimulating sales through price cuts. Nevertheless, shipments may still grow as LGD allocates more resources towards OLED and plans a lower-cost version of an OLED TV panel for release in early 2024.
Chen Qiaohui noted that last year's fourth quarter experienced weak demand, leading to planned maintenance shutdowns at many factories. However, China’s subsidy policy encouraging the scrapping of older devices revitalized market momentum, restoring price elasticity and halting production cuts. She also highlighted two panel manufacturers with significant growth potential this year: Sharp (expected decline of 33.3%) and CSOT (predicted increase of 22.1%).
In recent years, TV panels have increased in size; last year's largest model was a 115-inch display, which may reach up to 130 inches as upstream bottlenecks are resolved. Furthermore, panel manufacturers are pursuing innovations such as high refresh rate products and ultra-large sizes.
The mobile phone market is recovering from the downturn of 2022–2023 with an estimated growth of nearly 5%, reaching approximately 1.24 billion units due to replacement cycles and increasing demand for smartphones, particularly in emerging regions like India. However, TrendForce's Deputy Manager Lu Shuxuan anticipates only modest growth (around 1.5%) this year at about 1.243 billion units because the phone form factor has not changed significantly.
Regarding brands, most are showing positive trends except Samsung, which faces limited expansion opportunities despite its S series phones; Apple is expected to surpass Samsung in sales partly due to their new iPhone models and impacts from US tariff policies. In terms of specifications, OLED screens have seen rapid adoption rates, increasing from 51% last year to an estimated over 60% by the end of this year. LTPO panels are also becoming more prevalent among high-end flagship devices.
The laptop market presents increased opportunities as Intel’s dominance wanes under Trump's "America First" policy; TrendForce predicts a growth rate of approximately 3.3%, driven partly by Windows 10 ending support and businesses upgrading for security reasons. Lenovo demonstrated strong performance last year but may experience only low single-digit or flat growth this year, while HP faces saturated mid-to-low end consumer demand.
Apple’s new M4 chip in the MacBook Air has made it more affordable compared to its predecessor. ASUS benefited from China's policies with a surge of gaming laptops shipped at the end of 2023 but may see shipments diluted as Southeast Asian markets recover. The US market, which accounts for roughly one-third globally, is led by HP, followed by Dell and Lenovo; brands that effectively stabilize their supply chains are likely to increase their North American share.
In summary, diversification in global supply chains is accelerating with potential shifts towards China-specific production or Southeast Asia. Non-Chinese regions face challenges related to stability issues and cost competitiveness. Long-term factors influencing market demand include policy changes and terminal pricing adjustments as manufacturers manage costs while optimizing sales strategies.
(Picture source: pixabay)
The OLED (Organic Light-Emitting Diode) and LCD (Liquid Crystal Display) TV panel supply chains are undergoing subtle transformations; while OLED is gaining competitiveness due to its superior contrast ratio and thinner design, LCD continues to dominate the mid-to-low end markets. According to TrendForce's Deputy Manager Chen Qiaohui, growth in OLED TVs primarily stems from Samsung Electronics’ expanding product lineup and a recovery in Europe’s economy boosting demand for OLED panels.
However, this year's estimated shipment volume is 7.2 million units—a relatively small increase compared to last year due to supply-side adjustments; although LGD will exit the LCD market entirely, it does not plan on stimulating sales through price cuts. Nevertheless, shipments may still grow as LGD allocates more resources towards OLED and plans a lower-cost version of an OLED TV panel for release in early 2024.
Chen Qiaohui noted that last year's fourth quarter experienced weak demand, leading to planned maintenance shutdowns at many factories. However, China’s subsidy policy encouraging the scrapping of older devices revitalized market momentum, restoring price elasticity and halting production cuts. She also highlighted two panel manufacturers with significant growth potential this year: Sharp (expected decline of 33.3%) and CSOT (predicted increase of 22.1%).
In recent years, TV panels have increased in size; last year's largest model was a 115-inch display, which may reach up to 130 inches as upstream bottlenecks are resolved. Furthermore, panel manufacturers are pursuing innovations such as high refresh rate products and ultra-large sizes.
The mobile phone market is recovering from the downturn of 2022–2023 with an estimated growth of nearly 5%, reaching approximately 1.24 billion units due to replacement cycles and increasing demand for smartphones, particularly in emerging regions like India. However, TrendForce's Deputy Manager Lu Shuxuan anticipates only modest growth (around 1.5%) this year at about 1.243 billion units because the phone form factor has not changed significantly.
Regarding brands, most are showing positive trends except Samsung, which faces limited expansion opportunities despite its S series phones; Apple is expected to surpass Samsung in sales partly due to their new iPhone models and impacts from US tariff policies. In terms of specifications, OLED screens have seen rapid adoption rates, increasing from 51% last year to an estimated over 60% by the end of this year. LTPO panels are also becoming more prevalent among high-end flagship devices.
The laptop market presents increased opportunities as Intel’s dominance wanes under Trump's "America First" policy; TrendForce predicts a growth rate of approximately 3.3%, driven partly by Windows 10 ending support and businesses upgrading for security reasons. Lenovo demonstrated strong performance last year but may experience only low single-digit or flat growth this year, while HP faces saturated mid-to-low end consumer demand.
Apple’s new M4 chip in the MacBook Air has made it more affordable compared to its predecessor. ASUS benefited from China's policies with a surge of gaming laptops shipped at the end of 2023 but may see shipments diluted as Southeast Asian markets recover. The US market, which accounts for roughly one-third globally, is led by HP, followed by Dell and Lenovo; brands that effectively stabilize their supply chains are likely to increase their North American share.
In summary, diversification in global supply chains is accelerating with potential shifts towards China-specific production or Southeast Asia. Non-Chinese regions face challenges related to stability issues and cost competitiveness. Long-term factors influencing market demand include policy changes and terminal pricing adjustments as manufacturers manage costs while optimizing sales strategies.
(Picture source: pixabay)