CEATA President Estimates Trump's Tariff Expectations at 15%+
18 April 2025 路 Uncategorized 路
Source: 路 https://technews.tw/2025/04/18/trump-taiwan-reciprocal-tariffs-cier/
The United States has temporarily suspended equal tariffs for 90 days while negotiations with various countries are ongoing. Lien Hsien-ming, President of CEATA, believes the Trump administration鈥檚 ideal tariff rate may begin around 15%, and Taiwan should not anticipate negotiating from a zero-tariff position鈥攁 stance that might not align with Mr. Trump's objectives either. Securing tariffs of approximately 15% or lower would already be considered an excellent outcome for Taiwan.
On April 2nd, the US announced equal tariffs on over 180 countries and temporarily suspended them starting from April 9th, imposing a 10% tariff during this period. Despite this buffer, Taiwan鈥檚 government is using the time to negotiate with the US in an effort to secure competitive rates.
According to Lien Hsien-ming, zero tariffs are unlikely as Mr. Trump's goal is to incentivize domestic manufacturing; without import taxes, companies would lack incentive to invest within the United States. Consequently, he has implemented external levies while reducing domestic ones to encourage investment domestically.
Lien further notes that a projected $2 trillion deficit over four years resulting from tax cuts necessitates approximately $50 billion annually in tariff revenue. Based on last year鈥檚 import volume of roughly $3.3 trillion, this would require at least a 15% tariff rate.
Considering the context and Taiwan's substantial trade surplus with the US, Lien predicts that a likely outcome for Taiwan could fall between 15% -20%, which he considers favorable.
Lien advises caution in negotiations following the US announcement of equal tariffs. While public pressure demands swift action, patience is crucial as trade talks are complex; immediate results may only be achieved through unrealistic expectations such as full market access from the United States. Furthermore, with major economies embroiled in tariff disputes and domestic pressures mounting on Mr. Trump鈥檚 administration, future developments remain unpredictable.
On April 2nd, the US announced equal tariffs on over 180 countries and temporarily suspended them starting from April 9th, imposing a 10% tariff during this period. Despite this buffer, Taiwan鈥檚 government is using the time to negotiate with the US in an effort to secure competitive rates.
According to Lien Hsien-ming, zero tariffs are unlikely as Mr. Trump's goal is to incentivize domestic manufacturing; without import taxes, companies would lack incentive to invest within the United States. Consequently, he has implemented external levies while reducing domestic ones to encourage investment domestically.
Lien further notes that a projected $2 trillion deficit over four years resulting from tax cuts necessitates approximately $50 billion annually in tariff revenue. Based on last year鈥檚 import volume of roughly $3.3 trillion, this would require at least a 15% tariff rate.
Considering the context and Taiwan's substantial trade surplus with the US, Lien predicts that a likely outcome for Taiwan could fall between 15% -20%, which he considers favorable.
Lien advises caution in negotiations following the US announcement of equal tariffs. While public pressure demands swift action, patience is crucial as trade talks are complex; immediate results may only be achieved through unrealistic expectations such as full market access from the United States. Furthermore, with major economies embroiled in tariff disputes and domestic pressures mounting on Mr. Trump鈥檚 administration, future developments remain unpredictable.