The U.S.'s tariff rate on Chinese imports has reached a significant 145%, further escalating the Sino-U.S. trade war. While America believes issues can be resolved through phone calls, China insists that dialogues should proceed under principles of equality and mutual respect. American experts suggest both sides are currently unprepared for substantive discussions, making immediate dialogue premature.

During his second term, former President Trump consistently increased tariffs on Chinese goods; U.S. media reports confirm the current total tariff rate is 145%. In response, China imposed an additional 84% tariff on all American imports starting at noon Beijing time on April 10th. Following this reciprocal action, both the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Commerce reiterated that while negotiation remains open, dialogue must be conducted under mutual respect; they indicated readiness to counter a trade war if necessary.

Amidst escalating tensions in Sino-U.S. relations, there is hope from the U.S. side that President Xi Jinping will call his American counterpart. On April 9th, US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross stated that “President Trump expects to have a conversation with Chinese leader Xi Jinping,” expressing confidence that both leaders can resolve issues through phone calls.

However, experts caution against premature talks. Ryan Hass from the Brookings Institution argues in an analysis why President Xi has not called President Trump recently. He notes that it is rare for China’s leadership to initiate contact with U.S. presidents; past exceptions include former president Jiang Zemin calling then-U.S. President George W. Bush after the 9/11 attacks. Furthermore, within Chinese diplomatic culture, a “leadership call” implies certain expected outcomes and thus requires meticulous planning beforehand.

Hass believes both sides are not adequately prepared for such conversations as there is no established framework or agenda to guide discussions; this uncertainty makes it difficult to predict potential talking points. He warns that public confrontations during these calls could severely impact President Xi’s personal image and China's diplomatic stance.

China generally prefers high-level contacts within mutually agreed frameworks rather than spontaneous calls initiated by one party. CNN reports that the Trump administration has explicitly communicated to Chinese officials that it is up to President Xi Jinping to initiate a call with President Trump. Hass believes maintaining this precondition will make finding an immediate solution for escalating trade tensions unlikely in the short term.

Breaking through this deadlock may require more creative approaches.
(Author: Hsieh Yi-Hsuan; Image source: Flickr/The White House CC BY 2.0)