Zhang Yongwei from China EV 100 on the Prospects for Intelligent Development in New Energy Vehicles
3 April 2025 · Uncategorized ·
Source: · https://www.cnr.cn/tech/techds/20241230/t20241230_527026276.shtml
Beijing, December 30 (Reporter Feng Fang) – The media briefing for the China Electric Vehicles Hundred Forum (2025) was held in Beijing. Zhang Yongwei, vice chairman and secretary-general of the Chinese EV100 forum, stated that sales volume is expected to grow rapidly by about 30% in 2025, with penetration rates further increasing.
New Energy Vehicle Sales Expected To Grow By About 30 Percent Year-Over-Year In 2025
Zhang Yongwei pointed out that based on macroeconomic trends and the industry's trajectory, China’s automotive sector has entered a stable growth stage. It plays an important role in stimulating domestic demand and investment. He expects automobile sales (including exports) to reach around 32 million units by 2025 with steady annual increases of about three percent.
Among these, new energy vehicles will continue their rapid development; according to optimistic forecasts from the China EV100 Think Tank Research Department, domestic plus export demand for NEVs could hit approximately 16.5 million units in 2025, achieving an approximate year-over-year growth rate of thirty percent. Meanwhile, by 2025, internal market sales are expected to reach around fifteen million vehicles with a penetration rate exceeding fifty percent and reaching about fifty-five percent.
New Energy Vehicle Intelligence Development Will Enter Comprehensive Acceleration Phase
Regarding the intelligentization trend in new energy vehicle industry, Zhang Yongwei believes it will enter an accelerated phase. He noted that while electrification has been a long-term process for NEVs, their intelligence is just beginning to accelerate with three main characteristics:
Firstly, advanced smart technologies are rapidly entering mainstream markets of mid-to-low priced vehicles (i.e., cars costing between 100 thousand and 200 thousand RMB can achieve high-level intelligentization), marking a significant development. Secondly, the market has shifted from asking 'if there is' to pursuing whether it's both fun and practical ('is it good'), meaning that having intelligence will only be considered basic; new stages of demand are emerging based on this shift. Thirdly, 2025 marks the beginning year for foundational intelligentization which would enter a comprehensive coverage phase where most models in subsequent years must have some form of smart technology or product.
In 2024, penetration rates for L2 and above level assisted driving systems were at fifty-five point seven percent; by 2025 this could approach sixty-five percent.
Next-Generation Battery Products Represented By Solid-State Batteries Will Accelerate Towards Mass Production
Zhang Yongwei believes that next-generation battery products represented by solid-state batteries will accelerate towards mass production. Currently, the entire industry chain is rapidly advancing in developing solid-state batteries with automakers investing heavily into them; traditional and new energy enterprises as well as material companies have entered this field sufficiently to shorten the industrialization cycle of all-solid technologies.
According to experts within our sector and based on research findings, small-scale applications for solid-state battery technology are expected by 2027 or 2028. The reason these small batches will be applied is due to who can afford them rather than technological limitations; luxury cars could use such batteries that allow a single charge run up to two thousand kilometers. However, large scale application might still follow the lithium-ion battery model and enter into cost reduction cycles.
New Energy Vehicle Sales Expected To Grow By About 30 Percent Year-Over-Year In 2025
Zhang Yongwei pointed out that based on macroeconomic trends and the industry's trajectory, China’s automotive sector has entered a stable growth stage. It plays an important role in stimulating domestic demand and investment. He expects automobile sales (including exports) to reach around 32 million units by 2025 with steady annual increases of about three percent.
Among these, new energy vehicles will continue their rapid development; according to optimistic forecasts from the China EV100 Think Tank Research Department, domestic plus export demand for NEVs could hit approximately 16.5 million units in 2025, achieving an approximate year-over-year growth rate of thirty percent. Meanwhile, by 2025, internal market sales are expected to reach around fifteen million vehicles with a penetration rate exceeding fifty percent and reaching about fifty-five percent.
New Energy Vehicle Intelligence Development Will Enter Comprehensive Acceleration Phase
Regarding the intelligentization trend in new energy vehicle industry, Zhang Yongwei believes it will enter an accelerated phase. He noted that while electrification has been a long-term process for NEVs, their intelligence is just beginning to accelerate with three main characteristics:
Firstly, advanced smart technologies are rapidly entering mainstream markets of mid-to-low priced vehicles (i.e., cars costing between 100 thousand and 200 thousand RMB can achieve high-level intelligentization), marking a significant development. Secondly, the market has shifted from asking 'if there is' to pursuing whether it's both fun and practical ('is it good'), meaning that having intelligence will only be considered basic; new stages of demand are emerging based on this shift. Thirdly, 2025 marks the beginning year for foundational intelligentization which would enter a comprehensive coverage phase where most models in subsequent years must have some form of smart technology or product.
In 2024, penetration rates for L2 and above level assisted driving systems were at fifty-five point seven percent; by 2025 this could approach sixty-five percent.
Next-Generation Battery Products Represented By Solid-State Batteries Will Accelerate Towards Mass Production
Zhang Yongwei believes that next-generation battery products represented by solid-state batteries will accelerate towards mass production. Currently, the entire industry chain is rapidly advancing in developing solid-state batteries with automakers investing heavily into them; traditional and new energy enterprises as well as material companies have entered this field sufficiently to shorten the industrialization cycle of all-solid technologies.
According to experts within our sector and based on research findings, small-scale applications for solid-state battery technology are expected by 2027 or 2028. The reason these small batches will be applied is due to who can afford them rather than technological limitations; luxury cars could use such batteries that allow a single charge run up to two thousand kilometers. However, large scale application might still follow the lithium-ion battery model and enter into cost reduction cycles.